Climate Policy Actions for Pakistan to Lead a Low-Emissions Development Trajectory

Pakistan stands at a crossroads in its development pathway. As a developing nation of over 240 million people, it seeks robust economic growth to improve living standards and reduce poverty. Yet, this development imperative coincides with a global climate imperative: reducing greenhouse gas emissions to curb climate change. The challenge and opportunity for Pakistan is to pursue a low-emissions development trajectory – in other words, to grow economically without correspondingly high growth in carbon emissions. By taking bold climate policy actions now, Pakistan can “leapfrog” to cleaner technologies, avoid the pitfalls of pollution-heavy growth, and even become a regional leader in sustainable development. This article discusses key climate policy actions that can help Pakistan achieve a low-carbon future while meeting its development goals.

Why Low-Emissions Development?

First, a quick rationale: Pakistan’s contribution to global emissions is relatively small (somewhere around 0.6-0.8% of global CO2 emissions), but its emissions are expected to rise significantly if it follows a business-as-usual path due to population and economic growth. Unchecked emissions growth would not only add to global warming but also bring local problems – severe air pollution, inefficiency in energy use, and continued reliance on imported fossil fuels that strain the economy. Conversely, a low-emissions path can:

• Improve Energy Security: Less reliance on imported oil and gas by shifting to local renewables (sun, wind, hydro) which are abundant in Pakistan.
• Create Green Jobs: New industries like renewable energy, electric transport, and energy efficiency services can create jobs and skilled workforce.
• Avoid Future Costs: Prevent the locking-in of polluting infrastructure that might become obsolete or attract carbon tariffs (for example, if in the future countries impose carbon border taxes on goods, a low-carbon industry would be advantageous).
• Enhance Global Standing: By being proactive, Pakistan can attract climate finance, technology, and possibly earn carbon credits by exceeding its targets.

With that vision in mind, what concrete policy actions can put Pakistan on this path?

1. Renewable Energy Revolution

One of the linchpins of low-carbon development is transforming the energy sector:

• Renewable Energy Targets: Pakistan has already set targets in its policies (the Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy 2019 set a goal for 30% of power generation capacity to be renewable by 2030, not counting large hydro). These targets need to be not only maintained but potentially enhanced and, importantly, achieved. Policymakers should regularly update and raise ambition as technology costs fall. For example, aiming for 50% clean energy by 2035 could be a bold vision.
• Facilitating Investments: Simplify the regulatory framework for solar, wind, and other renewable projects. Implement one-window operations for investors, guarantee grid access, and ensure timely payments in power purchase agreements. Encouraging decentralized renewables is key too – policies for net metering (allowing consumers to sell solar rooftop power back to the grid) and incentives for solar home systems in off-grid areas will expand renewable uptake at small scales.
• Phasing Out Coal: Pakistan had plans for several coal power plants. Some have been built under CPEC, using both imported and local coal. However, a policy shift is visible: there’s a moratorium on new imported coal plants, and focus is turning to Thar domestic coal and hydro. To lead on low emissions, Pakistan should commit to no new coal plants and gradually retire or repurpose existing ones by mid-century. Instead, pivot those investments to renewables and grid improvements (to handle renewables’ intermittency).
• Strengthen the Grid and Storage: Policy support for modernizing the electricity grid (smart grids, better transmission to reduce losses) is needed to accommodate more renewables. Also, incentives for energy storage solutions (like utility-scale batteries or pumped hydro storage) can help manage the variability of solar/wind and ensure reliability.
• Regional Energy Trade: Explore importing clean power from neighbors (if advantageous) – e.g., hydro from Central Asia via CASA-1000 project, or solar from the Middle East in the longer run. Also export surplus clean energy when available. Such cooperation can reduce overall emissions and enhance energy security.

2. Embracing Electric Mobility and Public Transport

The transport sector is one of the fastest-growing sources of emissions in Pakistan (and a major cause of urban air pollution). A policy pivot here is crucial:

• National Electric Vehicle (EV) Policy Implementation: Pakistan approved an EV Policy aiming for 30% of all vehicles on the road to be electric by 2030. To realize this, actions must follow words:
  • Offer tax incentives and subsidies to make EVs (particularly two-wheelers and three-wheelers like motorcycles and rickshaws) affordable, since they are mass usage vehicles. Already, smaller EVs are prioritized – continue that push.
  • Invest in charging infrastructure across cities and highways. The government can provide land or grid connections for private companies to set up charging stations. Also encourage innovative solutions like battery swapping stations for electric bikes and rickshaws to reduce downtime.
  • Lead by example: transition government vehicle fleets (buses, official cars) to electric to create initial demand and demonstrate confidence.
  • Local manufacturing: Support local assembly or even manufacturing of EVs and batteries through incentives. This can spur an industrial shift and create jobs.
• Improve Public Transportation: A low-emissions future means moving away from the model of everyone using personal fossil-fuel vehicles. Policies to expand and modernize public transport are vital:
  • In big cities, develop mass transit (metro, BRT) systems that are efficient and ideally use electric trains/buses. Cities like Lahore and Islamabad have made starts with Metro/BRT; ensure these systems keep improving and expanding, and are well-integrated with feeder services.
  • Support intercity rail improvements – Pakistan Railways can be electrified in phases and made more reliable, so both people and freight shift from road to rail which has lower emissions per unit.
  • Non-motorized transport: City planning should also encourage walking and cycling by building sidewalks, bike lanes, and safe crossings. It’s a health and emissions win-win.
• Fuel Economy and Standards: While transitioning to EVs, also enforce stricter fuel efficiency standards for new petrol/diesel vehicles. A vehicle emissions standard (like Euro-VI) would push carmakers to bring cleaner engines, which reduces both GHGs and smog-forming pollutants. Remove low-quality fuel from market (e.g., high sulphur diesel).
• Awareness and Culture Shift: Encourage a culture of carpooling and using public transit through campaigns. Sometimes, policies like congestion charging or higher parking fees in city centers can nudge behavior towards collective transport – though those need careful planning to not unfairly burden those without alternatives.

3. Climate-Smart Agriculture and Forestry

Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy and also a significant source of emissions (methane from rice paddies and livestock, nitrous oxide from fertilized soils). It’s also highly vulnerable to climate change. Policies should aim for “climate-smart” agriculture:

• Efficient Farming Practices: Promote techniques that reduce emissions and increase resilience. For example, in rice farming, methods like Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) can cut methane emissions and save water. In livestock, better feed and manure management can reduce methane. Provide training and perhaps micro-finance to farmers for these methods.
• Agroforestry and Conservation: Integrate trees into farmlands – they capture carbon, provide shade (reducing heat stress on crops/livestock), and can be an extra income source (fruit or timber). Policies might include incentives or technical help to farmers to plant and maintain trees on field boundaries or as windbreaks.
• Fertilizer Use Optimization: Excess fertilizer not only is wasted money but emits nitrous oxide. Encouraging precision farming (using the right amount at right time, perhaps via soil testing services and agri-extension advising farmers) will lower emissions and runoff.
• Preserve and Expand Forests: Deforestation has been an issue historically. Initiatives like the Billion Tree and Ten Billion Tree Tsunami aim to reverse this. It’s critical to continue and expand afforestation/reforestation efforts. But policy must ensure the right trees in the right places (prefer native species, restore degraded forests and mangroves). Strengthen forest protection laws to curb illegal logging and incentivize community forestry (where locals have stake in keeping forests).
• Restore Land Degraded by Climate: In places like Thar or Cholistan, where desertification is a risk, invest in land restoration projects. Techniques like rainwater harvesting structures, replanting drought-resistant vegetation, and controlled grazing can rehabilitate ecosystems, which in turn sequester carbon and protect livelihoods.

4. Industrial Innovation and Energy Efficiency

While transforming energy and transport tackles big parts of emissions, industrial policy and energy efficiency are also key:

• Energy Efficiency Standards: Implement and enforce efficiency standards for appliances (fans, ACs, fridges) and industrial equipment. Pakistan already has some standards and labeling programs; these should be made stricter over time. Efficiency is the cheapest way to cut emissions – using less energy to achieve the same output. For instance, more efficient motors in factories or better insulation in buildings can reduce energy demand significantly.
• Building Codes: Update building codes to mandate energy-efficient designs for new construction. This includes insulation, reflective roofing (to reduce cooling needs), and perhaps solar water heating or solar PV requirements for large buildings. Cities can provide incentives like faster permitting for builders who comply with green building standards.
• Waste Management and Circular Economy: Landfills emit methane; better waste policies can reduce this. Encourage recycling and waste segregation (some cities have started door-to-door waste separation). For organic waste, promote composting or bio-digesters to capture methane for use as biogas. A circular economy approach in industry (where waste of one process becomes input for another) can both reduce pollution and emissions.
• Green Industrial Policy: Identify key industries where Pakistan can lead in green tech manufacturing – perhaps assembling solar panels, producing electric motorcycles (some local companies are doing this), or making energy-efficient appliances. Support these with tax breaks or research and development funding. As global demand for green tech rises, this can be an export opportunity as well.
• Carbon Pricing Signal: Eventually, Pakistan could consider a form of carbon pricing (a tax or an emissions trading system) for large emitters. This would create an economic incentive across the board to cut emissions. Even a modest carbon tax with revenue recycled into clean tech subsidies can tilt decisions in favor of low-carbon choices. However, this must be carefully designed to avoid burdening consumers or making industry uncompetitive if applied unilaterally. Starting with sectors where there are obvious alternatives (like a small levy on inefficient vehicles or coal power plants) could be a way to phase it in.

5. Strengthening Climate Governance and NDC Implementation

On the policy and institutional front:

• NDC and Policy Alignment: Pakistan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement outlines its emission reduction commitments and needs for support. The latest submission should be robust (the 2021 updated NDC aimed to cut 50% of projected emissions by 2030, 15% unconditional and 35% conditional on finance). It’s critical that domestic policies align with these targets. That means regular monitoring of progress, and updating laws or strategies to stay on track.
• Inter-ministerial Coordination: Climate policy isn’t just the job of the Ministry of Climate Change; it has to involve energy, finance, planning, agriculture, transport, etc. The framework provided by the Climate Change Act 2017, which established bodies like the Pakistan Climate Change Council and Authority, needs to be operationalized effectively. These bodies should coordinate across ministries and provincial governments to ensure everyone is rowing in the same direction regarding low-carbon development.
• Provincial and City Action Plans: Decentralize action by encouraging provinces and major cities to develop their own climate action plans in line with national goals. For example, Sindh could have a plan focusing on transitioning the Karachi transport and Thar energy mix, while KP might focus on forestry and micro-hydro, etc. Local ownership often speeds implementation.
• Public Awareness and Buy-In: No policy will succeed without public support. Government and civil society should run awareness campaigns on why low-carbon choices are beneficial – e.g., explain to the public that EVs mean cleaner air and less fuel cost, or that planting trees can reduce flood risk and heat in cities. Showcase pilot successes, like communities that went solar and now have reliable electricity, or industries that saved money through efficiency.
• Climate Finance Mobilization: As detailed in a previous blog, Pakistan will need financial support for this transition. Climate policy actions should include building a pipeline of bankable projects to present to international climate funds (GCF, etc.) and donors. It should also encourage private sector finance by providing guarantees or improving ease of doing business in green sectors.

Conclusion: Leading by Example

If Pakistan implements these policy actions earnestly, it can chart a development course that differs from the fossil-fuel-heavy paths of many past industrializers. It’s about “growth without soot” – economic advancement without the choking air and high emissions. This is not to say it’s easy; there are barriers like upfront costs, legacy interests in old energy, and need for capacity. But each step builds momentum.

There are early signs of progress: huge solar and wind potential starting to be tapped in Sindh and Balochistan, the successful mass tree planting campaigns, the EV policy setting vision, and Pakistan’s advocacy for climate justice globally (like pushing for the Loss & Damage fund). By accelerating these and adding new measures, Pakistan can indeed become a regional leader. Imagine in 2030 or 2040, Pakistan being cited as an example of a country that managed to expand its electricity access and industry while peaking its emissions and then declining – that’s a narrative of climate leadership aligned with development. It would give Pakistan moral authority on the international stage to demand greater action from big emitters as well.

Crucially, a low-emissions trajectory is essentially about modernizing Pakistan’s economy. Cleaner technology, efficient processes, and sustainable resource use will make the economy more competitive and resilient. And it will directly improve the quality of life of citizens – cleaner air, better transit, and a protected environment. In the end, climate policy actions for low-carbon development are not just about carbon; they’re about choosing a healthier, more prosperous future for Pakistan.